DR-R3W asks:

Will the government of Belarus publicly announce or acknowledge that its armed forces have engaged in armed fighting in Ukraine before 7 April 2023?

Started Oct 07, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 07, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko accused Ukraine of provocations due to the latter's deployment of troops to the border (US News & World Report). While Russia staged its invasion of Ukraine in part from Belarus, Lukashenko insists that its armed forces have not engaged in armed fighting (BELTA). For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. The participation and the announcement/acknowledgement would both have to occur during the question's open period to count. Acknowledging that members of the Belarusian armed forces may have volunteered to fight under Russian or Ukrainian command in a Russian or Ukrainian military unit would not count.

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NOTE 5 December 2022: If members of Belarusian armed forces are placed under Russian military command by the Belarusian government and those Belarusian troops are publicly acknowledged by the government of Belarus to be fighting in Ukraine, that would count.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 7 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3.01%
No 96.99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 175
Average for questions older than 6 months: 229
Number of Forecasts 812
Average for questions older than 6 months: 637
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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