Johnxf asks:
Before 15 April 2023, will Ebrahim Raisi flee Iran or cease to be its president?
Started
Oct 14, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 15, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Closed Apr 15, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
Anti-government protests have grown throughout Iran in the wake of Mahsa Amini's death while in custody (US News & World Report, Time, CNBC). Whether or not Raisi has fled Iran will be determined using credible open source media reporting.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 15 April 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, and Ebrahim Raisi will become the supreme leader of Iran before 15 April 2023 without fleeing | 2% | |
| Yes, but Ebrahim Raisi will not become the supreme leader of Iran before 15 April 2023 and/or will have fled | 5% | |
| No | 94% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 75 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 215 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 356 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 606 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |
