Johnxf asks:

Before 15 April 2023, will Ebrahim Raisi flee Iran or cease to be its president?

Started Oct 14, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 15, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Anti-government protests have grown throughout Iran in the wake of Mahsa Amini's death while in custody (US News & World Report, Time, CNBC). Whether or not Raisi has fled Iran will be determined using credible open source media reporting.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 15 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and Ebrahim Raisi will become the supreme leader of Iran before 15 April 2023 without fleeing 2%
Yes, but Ebrahim Raisi will not become the supreme leader of Iran before 15 April 2023 and/or will have fled 5%
No 94%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 75
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 356
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.018
2.
-0.017
3.
-0.017
4.
-0.017
5.
-0.016

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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