Johnxf asks:

Will Iraq form a government before 21 February 2023?

Started Oct 21, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 27, 2022 05:57PM UTC

After selecting a president more than a year after the last general election, Iraqi officials are attempting to form a government amid continued political gridlock (France24, House of Commons Library, Al-Arabiya). A government would be deemed formed upon the Council of Representatives approving individual ministers and the ministerial program in accordance with the Iraqi constitution (Iraqi Constitution, see Article 76, Section Four). The question would close "No" upon the calling of new parliamentary elections in the country without a new government being formed.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 27 October 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 50.30%
No 49.70%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 18
Average for questions older than 6 months: 201
Number of Forecasts 28
Average for questions older than 6 months: 573
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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