Started Oct 21, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 27, 2022 05:57PM UTC

Johnxf asks:

Will Iraq form a government before 21 February 2023?

After selecting a president more than a year after the last general election, Iraqi officials are attempting to form a government amid continued political gridlock (France24, House of Commons Library, Al-Arabiya). A government would be deemed formed upon the Council of Representatives approving individual ministers and the ministerial program in accordance with the Iraqi constitution (Iraqi Constitution, see Article 76, Section Four). The question would close "No" upon the calling of new parliamentary elections in the country without a new government being formed.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 27 October 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 50.30%
No 49.70%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 18
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 28
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 519
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.285
3.
-0.172

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username