When will US total nonfarm payrolls next decrease in a given month?

Started Oct 21, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The US labor market continued to add jobs in September 2022, but there are concerns that conditions may deteriorate as the Fed raises interest rates and recession fears rise (US News & World Report, Yahoo Finance). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using BLS data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Change, Thousands of Persons"). Subsequent revisions would be immaterial.

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The question closed "Not before October 2023" with a closing date of 1 October 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Between October 2022 and December 2022 0%
Between January 2023 and March 2023 0%
Between April 2023 and June 2023 0%
Between July 2023 and September 2023 2%
Not before October 2023 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 58
Average for questions older than 6 months: 216
Number of Forecasts 477
Average for questions older than 6 months: 607
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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