Started Oct 21, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

When will US total nonfarm payrolls next decrease in a given month?

The US labor market continued to add jobs in September 2022, but there are concerns that conditions may deteriorate as the Fed raises interest rates and recession fears rise (US News & World Report, Yahoo Finance). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using BLS data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Change, Thousands of Persons"). Subsequent revisions would be immaterial.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Between October 2022 and December 2022 0.00% +0.00% -1.00% -1.00%
Between January 2023 and March 2023 34.88% +1.88% -0.12% -0.12%
Between April 2023 and June 2023 35.53% +0.53% +1.53% +0.53%
Between July 2023 and September 2023 14.53% -1.47% +0.53% -1.47%
Not before October 2023 15.06% -0.94% -0.94% +2.06%

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