How many job layoffs and discharges in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for the first quarter of 2023?

Started Oct 21, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

US job openings fell in August 2022 at the fastest pace since the beginning of the COVID pandemic, raising concerns that the US labor market may be deteriorating (US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined by summing BLS data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) for January 2023, February 2023, and March 2023 as reported when data for March 2023 are first released, expected around early May 2023 (FRED). As of 20 October 2022, the job layoffs and discharges reported for the first quarter of 2022 totaled 4,173 (in thousands).

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The question closed "More than 5 million but fewer than 6 million" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 4 million 3%
Between 4 million and 5 million, inclusive 54%
More than 5 million but fewer than 6 million 41%
Between 6 million and 7 million, inclusive 2%
More than 7 million but fewer than 8 million 0%
8 million or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 27
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 141
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.065881
3.
-0.060483
4.
-0.053105
5.
-0.050304

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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