Started Oct 26, 2022 02:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 January 2024?

Over two years after a deadly clash in the Himalayas left dozens dead, tensions between China and India remain (Diplomat, The Hindu, Outlook India, Devdiscourse). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 23.96% -0.25% -3.08% -11.69%
No 76.04% +0.25% +3.08% +11.69%

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