Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 January 2024?

Started Oct 26, 2022 02:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Over two years after a deadly clash in the Himalayas left dozens dead, tensions between China and India remain (Diplomat, The Hindu, Outlook India, Devdiscourse). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 9.32%
No 90.68%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 164
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 516
Average for questions older than 6 months: 578
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.024114
2.
-0.024001
3.
-0.024001
4.
-0.023713
5.
-0.023433

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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