Started Oct 28, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 05, 2023 09:00AM UTC

ctsats asks:

Will Greece or Turkey publicly accuse the other of using a weapon against its national military, militia, and/or law enforcement forces before 29 April 2023?

Tensions are high between the historical rivals and NATO members over various territorial claims in the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas (Voice of America, Al Jazeera, Yahoo News). For the purposes of this question, drones may be considered part of "forces" if so claimed by the accusing party's forces. Accusations of "warning shots" being fired would count. An accusation of a vessel or aircraft deliberately ramming another would count, but accidental collisions would not. Cyberattacks would not count. Both the accused use and the accusation must occur during the question's open period to count.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 5 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 7.00%
No 93.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 56
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 195
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 519
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.772
2.
-1.031
3.
-0.929
4.
-0.839
5.
-0.732

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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