The Economist and zentek ask:

What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2023?

Started Nov 04, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Inflation in the US is expected to cool in 2023 versus 2022, with some discussing the potential for deflation (Morningstar, CBS News, CNBC, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for June 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All items," expected in July 2023 (BLS). For June 2022, the change was 9.1%.

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The question closed "Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Down by more than 0.0% 0%
Up by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive 3%
Up by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0% 16%
Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive 59%
Up by more than 4.5% but less than 6.0% 18%
Up by 6.0% or more 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 231
Average for questions older than 6 months: 201
Number of Forecasts 709
Average for questions older than 6 months: 573
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.138045
2.
-0.137007
3.
-0.134204
4.
-0.127406
5.
-0.117144

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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