The Economist and zentek ask:
What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2023?
Closed Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Inflation in the US is expected to cool in 2023 versus 2022, with some discussing the potential for deflation (Morningstar, CBS News, CNBC, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for June 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All items," expected in July 2023 (BLS). For June 2022, the change was 9.1%.
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The question closed "Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Down by more than 0.0% | 0% | |
| Up by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive | 3% | |
| Up by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0% | 16% | |
| Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive | 59% | |
| Up by more than 4.5% but less than 6.0% | 18% | |
| Up by 6.0% or more | 4% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 231 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 215 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 709 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 605 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
