zentek asks:

What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2023?

Started Nov 04, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Inflation in the US is expected to cool in 2023 versus 2022, with some discussing the potential for deflation (Morningstar, CBS News, CNBC, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for December 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All items," expected in January 2024 (BLS). For December 2021, the change was 7.0%.

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The question closed "Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Down by more than 0.0% 4%
Up by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive 2%
Up by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0% 13%
Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive 78%
Up by more than 4.5% but less than 6.0% 3%
Up by 6.0% or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 69
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 502
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.111
3.
-0.085
4.
-0.08
5.
-0.077

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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