Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will more international overnight visitors from China visit Dubai in 2023 than did in 2019, according to the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism?

Started Nov 14, 2022 11:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Dubai is expecting a surge in Chinese tourists once China eases its COVID-19 policy restrictions (The National). The outcome will be determined using data from the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism (Dubai Tourism). In 2019, China accounted for 989,000 visitors (Dubai Tourism - 2019 Annual Report). For January through September 2022, Dubai has received 113,000 visitors from China versus 729,000 over the same period in 2019 (Dubai Tourism - Tourism Performance Report September 2022).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 20.74%
No 79.26%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 67
Average for questions older than 6 months: 201
Number of Forecasts 174
Average for questions older than 6 months: 573
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.195613
2.
-0.194838
3.
-0.194827
4.
-0.189775
5.
-0.188733

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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