Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What percentage of the labour force in British Columbia (BC) will be comprised of landed immigrants in 2023?

Started Nov 25, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Statistics Canada (Statistics Canada, parameters set in link). To adjust the date range, see the year drop-down menus under "Reference period," and click "Apply." Subsequent revisions to data would be immaterial. The percentage of workers in the labour force who are landed immigrants will be determined by dividing the number of "Landed Immigrants" by the "Total Population" figure. In 2021, landed immigrants comprised 32.04% (=910.4/2841.2) of the BC labour force.

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The question closed "Between 32.0% and 33.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 32.0% 13%
Between 32.0% and 33.0%, inclusive 48%
More than 33.0% but less than 34.0% 30%
Between 34.0% and 35.0%, inclusive 8%
More than 35.0% 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 27
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 85
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.13
2.
-0.120382
3.
-0.107915
5.
-0.080728

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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