Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 1 December 2022 and 28 February 2023, will the 7-day moving average of COVID-19 reported cases in British Columbia (BC) reach or exceed 1,000, according to the BC Center for Disease Control?

Started Nov 29, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The BC health system is already grappling with increases in respiratory diseases, though COVID-19 cases have thus far remained low as winter approaches (CBC, Vancouver Sun). The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 if still open and the outcome determined using data as first reported by the "BC COVID-19 Dashboard" (BC Centre for Disease Control, click "COVID-19 Dashboard"). The "7-day Moving Avg" data can be viewed in the chart under "B.C. Cases Reported to Public Health" by hovering your cursor over the line for the average. You may also see daily numbers by hovering your cursor over the daily columns more easily by narrowing the date range with the slider immediately above the chart. As of 29 November 2022, the 7-day moving average of reported COVID-19 cases on 4 November 2022 was 57.6.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 March 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.70%
No 99.30%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 25
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 77
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.023259
2.
-0.022946
3.
-0.02268
4.
-0.021893
5.
-0.020735

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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