UBS asks:

What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?

Started Dec 02, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

As China deals with new COVID outbreaks, protests against "zero COVID" & other issues, and a distressed property market, economic growth expectations have fallen (Yahoo Finance, CNN, Guardian). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from China's National Bureau of Statistics as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in April 2023 (Trading Economics).

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The question closed "Higher by between 4.5% and 6.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower by more than 1.5% 2%
Lower by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive 3%
Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5% 8%
Higher by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive 22%
Higher by more than 3.0% but less than 4.5% 39%
Higher by between 4.5% and 6.0%, inclusive 21%
Higher by more than 6.0% but less than 7.5% 5%
Higher by 7.5% or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 200
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 360
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.302072
2.
-0.291654
3.
-0.288677
4.
-0.282181
5.
-0.278066

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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