UBS asks:
What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
As China deals with new COVID outbreaks, protests against "zero COVID" & other issues, and a distressed property market, economic growth expectations have fallen (Yahoo Finance, CNN, Guardian). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from China's National Bureau of Statistics as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in April 2023 (Trading Economics).
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The question closed "Higher by between 4.5% and 6.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower by more than 1.5% | 2% | |
| Lower by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive | 3% | |
| Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5% | 8% | |
| Higher by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive | 22% | |
| Higher by more than 3.0% but less than 4.5% | 39% | |
| Higher by between 4.5% and 6.0%, inclusive | 21% | |
| Higher by more than 6.0% but less than 7.5% | 5% | |
| Higher by 7.5% or more | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 200 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 360 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
