Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 December 2023?

Started Dec 16, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea (VNExpress, AP, CSIS, Council on Foreign Relations, Diplomat). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 3.42% +0.42% +0.39% -0.14%
No 96.58% -0.42% -0.39% +0.14%

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