Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 December 2023?

Started Dec 16, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea (VNExpress, AP, CSIS, Council on Foreign Relations, Diplomat). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 December 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.77%
No 98.23%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 97
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 326
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.003611
2.
-0.003611
3.
-0.003611
5.
-0.003611

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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