Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 December 2023?
Closed Dec 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea (VNExpress, AP, CSIS, Council on Foreign Relations, Diplomat). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 December 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.77% | |
| No | 98.23% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 97 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 326 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
