CJH asks:

How many presidential campaign rallies will Donald Trump hold in early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president in the fourth quarter of 2023?

Started Dec 16, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Former President Donald Trump announced that he will seek the Republican nomination for US president in 2024 (The Hill). FiveThirtyEight Founder Nate Silver speculated on Twitter whether Trump is actually running for reasons other than winning the 2024 presidential election (Twitter - Nate Silver). "Early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president" are the four states scheduled to hold Republican primaries or caucuses first. The list of pertinent states is subject to change depending on the official finalization of the schedule by the jurisdictions involved. The list will be finalized for this question no later than 31 August 2023, and if there is more than one primary scheduled for the date on which the fourth would fall, the primary for the state with the largest population would be included. For a Trump presidential campaign rally to count, it must be open to the public (though not necessarily free to attend), have reported attendance of at least 1,000, and have Donald Trump speak at the event in person (e.g., WUWM, Telegraph Herald).

*This question uses an experimental framing. Please read the question description carefully before forecasting.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 5 October 2023: Per the question description, the following note should have been posted by 31 August 2023. It was drafted on 29 August, but didn't save:

For the purposes of this question, the four "early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president" are Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. While the specific date for the New Hampshire primary has not been set, the secretary of state is required by state law to select a date 7 days or more immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election (General Court of New Hampshire).


The question closed "Between 13 and 18" with a closing date of 1 January 2024. There were at least 13 qualifying events in the fourth quarter of 2023: 10/1/2023 Ottumwa, IA; 10/7/2023 Cedar Rapids, IA; 10/7/2023 Waterloo, IA; 10/16/2023 Clive, IA; 10/16/2023 Adel, IA; 10/23/2023 Derry, NH; 10/28/2023 Las Vegas, NV (RJC); 10/29/2023 Sioux City, IA; 11/18/2023 Fort Dodge, IA; 12/13/2023 Coralville, IA; 12/16/2023 Durham, NH; 12/17/2023 Reno, NV; 12/19/2023 Waterloo, IA.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
None 2%
Between 1 and 6 12%
Between 7 and 12 66%
Between 13 and 18 16%
19 or more 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 51
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 313
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.298894
2.
-0.274662
3.
-0.243731
4.
-0.220603
5.
-0.202404

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username