CJH asks:

How many presidential campaign rallies will Donald Trump hold in early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president in the fourth quarter of 2023?

Started Dec 16, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Former President Donald Trump announced that he will seek the Republican nomination for US president in 2024 (The Hill). FiveThirtyEight Founder Nate Silver speculated on Twitter whether Trump is actually running for reasons other than winning the 2024 presidential election (Twitter - Nate Silver). "Early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president" are the four states scheduled to hold Republican primaries or caucuses first. The list of pertinent states is subject to change depending on the official finalization of the schedule by the jurisdictions involved. The list will be finalized for this question no later than 31 August 2023, and if there is more than one primary scheduled for the date on which the fourth would fall, the primary for the state with the largest population would be included. For a Trump presidential campaign rally to count, it must be open to the public (though not necessarily free to attend), have reported attendance of at least 1,000, and have Donald Trump speak at the event in person (e.g., WUWM, Telegraph Herald).

*This question uses an experimental framing. Please read the question description carefully before forecasting.

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NOTE 5 October 2023: Per the question description, the following note should have been posted by 31 August 2023. It was drafted on 29 August, but didn't save:

For the purposes of this question, the four "early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president" are Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. While the specific date for the New Hampshire primary has not been set, the secretary of state is required by state law to select a date 7 days or more immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election (General Court of New Hampshire).

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
None 7.75% +0.00% -2.25% -7.25%
Between 1 and 6 33.00% +0.00% -8.00% -9.00%
Between 7 and 12 40.50% +0.00% +4.50% +7.50%
Between 13 and 18 15.60% +0.00% +3.60% +7.60%
19 or more 3.15% +0.00% +2.15% +1.15%

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