CJH asks:
How many presidential campaign rallies will Donald Trump hold in early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president in the fourth quarter of 2023?
Closing Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
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NOTE 5 October 2023: Per the question description, the following note should have been posted by 31 August 2023. It was drafted on 29 August, but didn't save:
For the purposes of this question, the four "early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president" are Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. While the specific date for the New Hampshire primary has not been set, the secretary of state is required by state law to select a date 7 days or more immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election (General Court of New Hampshire).
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 7.75% | +0.00% | -2.25% | -7.25% |
| Between 1 and 6 | 33.00% | +0.00% | -8.00% | -9.00% |
| Between 7 and 12 | 40.50% | +0.00% | +4.50% | +7.50% |
| Between 13 and 18 | 15.60% | +0.00% | +3.60% | +7.60% |
| 19 or more | 3.15% | +0.00% | +2.15% | +1.15% |