CJH asks:
How many presidential campaign rallies will Donald Trump hold in early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president in the fourth quarter of 2023?
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
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NOTE 5 October 2023: Per the question description, the following note should have been posted by 31 August 2023. It was drafted on 29 August, but didn't save:
For the purposes of this question, the four "early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president" are Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. While the specific date for the New Hampshire primary has not been set, the secretary of state is required by state law to select a date 7 days or more immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election (General Court of New Hampshire).
The question closed "Between 13 and 18" with a closing date of 1 January 2024. There were at least 13 qualifying events in the fourth quarter of 2023: 10/1/2023 Ottumwa, IA; 10/7/2023 Cedar Rapids, IA; 10/7/2023 Waterloo, IA; 10/16/2023 Clive, IA; 10/16/2023 Adel, IA; 10/23/2023 Derry, NH; 10/28/2023 Las Vegas, NV (RJC); 10/29/2023 Sioux City, IA; 11/18/2023 Fort Dodge, IA; 12/13/2023 Coralville, IA; 12/16/2023 Durham, NH; 12/17/2023 Reno, NV; 12/19/2023 Waterloo, IA.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
None | 2% | |
Between 1 and 6 | 12% | |
Between 7 and 12 | 66% | |
Between 13 and 18 | 16% | |
19 or more | 4% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 51 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 178 | |
Number of Forecasts | 313 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 521 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |