UBS asks:

What will be the total number of housing starts in the US in the first half of 2023?

Started Jan 06, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

As interest rates have risen, US homebuilding has declined (US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau (Census Bureau). From the Census Bureau page, download the XLS file for "Housing Units Started." In the file, find the "StartsUA" sheet. The total number of starts in the first half of 2022 (January through June) was 839.5 thousand, or 839,500. Please note that monthly figures are often reported as annualized rates, and this question is concerned with actual monthly figures.

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The question closed "Between 700,000 and 850,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 400,000 1%
Between 400,000 and 550,000, inclusive 3%
More than 550,000 but fewer than 700,000 19%
Between 700,000 and 850,000, inclusive 76%
More than 850,000 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 66
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 262
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.272
2.
-0.209
3.
-0.178
4.
-0.143
5.
-0.137

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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