Nonrival asks:
When will the US next raise, suspend, and/or abolish its debt ceiling?
Closing Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
After the contentious fight within the Republican Party to elect a Speaker of the House, there are concerns that a major political fight over the US debt ceiling looms (US News, Guardian, CNN). The public debt ceiling (aka public debt limit) is a statutory limit on how much debt the US government may issue, with limited exceptions (Investopedia - Debt Ceiling, Congressional Research Service). As of 16 December 2021, the ceiling was set to its current level of $31,381,462,788,891.71 (US Treasury). Select "Published Reports" in the "Preview & Download" section, select "Previous" under “Select Report Date," and then set the year to "2022" and month to "Dec." The value will be in footnote 5.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 1 May 2023 | 10.56% | +0.52% | +0.43% | -7.44% |
| Between 1 May 2023 and 31 August 2023 | 72.04% | +2.84% | +3.00% | +8.04% |
| Between 1 September 2023 and 31 December 2023 | 14.56% | -1.44% | -1.44% | +0.56% |
| Not before 1 January 2024 | 2.84% | -1.92% | -1.99% | -1.16% |