Nonrival asks:

When will the US next raise, suspend, and/or abolish its debt ceiling?

Started Jan 13, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 03, 2023 06:15PM UTC

After the contentious fight within the Republican Party to elect a Speaker of the House, there are concerns that a major political fight over the US debt ceiling looms (US News, Guardian, CNN). The public debt ceiling (aka public debt limit) is a statutory limit on how much debt the US government may issue, with limited exceptions (Investopedia - Debt Ceiling, Congressional Research Service). As of 16 December 2021, the ceiling was set to its current level of $31,381,462,788,891.71 (US Treasury). Select "Published Reports" in the "Preview & Download" section, select "Previous" under “Select Report Date," and then set the year to "2022" and month to "Dec." The value will be in footnote 5.

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Note 15 May 2023: Judicial actions or interventions as such would be immaterial to the resolution.


The question closed "Between 1 May 2023 and 31 August 2023" with a closing date of 3 June 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 May 2023 0%
Between 1 May 2023 and 31 August 2023 97%
Between 1 September 2023 and 31 December 2023 2%
Not before 1 January 2024 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 84
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 316
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.053921
2.
-0.051123
3.
-0.049586
4.
-0.046816
5.
-0.044502

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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