Nonrival asks:

Will Fitch, Moody's, and/or S&P downgrade their long-term credit ratings or outlooks for the United States in 2023?

Started Jan 13, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 24, 2023 10:35PM UTC

With a political fight looming over the US debt ceiling, there are concerns that US credit ratings could be downgraded (The Hill, AP). Fitch, Moody's, and S&P are the "Big Three" global credit rating agencies, which assign ratings on a borrower's likelihood of repaying its debts (Investopedia - Credit Rating). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics). A downgrade to the outlook or a negative watch would count (Investopedia - Negative Watch).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 24 May 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 26.08%
No 73.92%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 60
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 159
Average for questions older than 6 months: 595
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.568
2.
-1.447
3.
-1.32
4.
-1.268
5.
-1.23

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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