Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will total global corporate investment in AI in 2023 reach or exceed $300 billion, according to the Artificial Intelligence Index?

Started Jan 24, 2023 10:00AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Investment in artificial intelligence (AI) has grown considerably in just the past decade, with some raising concerns about the potential consequences of embracing the technology (TechRepublic, World Economic Forum, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using 2023 data as first published in the 2024 AI Index Report published by the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence, expected in March 2024 (Stanford University). In 2021, the total annual investment in AI companies in the world was $176.47 billion (Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2022, see Figure 4.2.1 on page 151). Inflation-adjusted historical data may also be found on Our World in Data (Our World in Data).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 23.85%
No 76.15%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 81
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 353
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.049693
2.
-1.017425
3.
-1.000599
4.
-0.81424
5.
-0.811596

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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