Started Sep 02, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC

&nbsp The Monkey Cage asks

How many people will vote in the 2016 presidential election?

This question was closed as "More than 135 Million" with an end date of 8 November 2016. More than 136 million people voted in the 2016 US election (The Cook Political Report, US Elections Project) See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated


Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both have historically high unfavorable ratings (Gallup, FiveThirtyEight), which could lead to a large number of eligible voters staying home on election day - or could motivate them to go to the polls to vote against one candidate. The voting eligible population of the US is estimated by PEW to be around 225 million people (Pew Research Center), a turnout of fewer than 113 million would indicate approximately 50% turnout or less while a turnout of more than 135 million would indicate approximately 60% turnout or greater. For historical turnout rates see: United States Election Project. Thanks to alistaircookie and Jean-Pierre for suggesting this question! Recommended Questions Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France? Who will win the 2016 US presidential election? Will the winner of the 2016 presidential election win the popular vote by 10 or more percentage points?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 113 million 1%
Between 113 million and 135 million, inclusive 67%
More than 135 million 32%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 314
Average for questions older than 6 months: 250
Number of Forecasts 773
Average for questions older than 6 months: 678
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.589
2.
-0.588
3.
-0.572
4.
-0.559
5.
-0.552

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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