Started Sep 02, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC

&nbsp The Monkey Cage asks

Will the winner of the 2016 presidential election win the popular vote by 10 or more percentage points?

This question was closed with the correct answer 'No' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Donald Trump, winner of the 2016 presidential election, did not win the popular vote. (NY Times) See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated


A popular vote margin of 10 points or greater has not happened since the 1984 presidential election, when Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale by winning 58.8% of the popular vote to Mondale's 40.6%, but some analysts are predicting that this year's presidential election will be a landslide (CNN, NY Times, FiveThirtyEight). Recommended Questions Who will win Austria's upcoming presidential election? Who will win the 2016 US presidential election? How many people will vote in the 2016 presidential election?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.00%
No 95.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 613
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 1440
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.01
2.
-0.01
4.
-0.01
5.
-0.01

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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