dada asks:
Between 10 February 2023 and 10 August 2023, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Armenia and Azerbaijan result in 100 or more fatalities?
Closed Aug 11, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan flared up most recently in September 2022, and tensions remain high despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers (France 24, US News & World Report, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in a fatality (total, not each) for forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, the forces of Artsakh, the breakaway Armenian-majority republic in Nagorno-Karabakh, are considered Armenian forces.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 11 August 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.77% | |
| No | 95.23% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 76 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 219 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 277 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 613 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
