dada asks:

Between 10 February 2023 and 10 August 2023, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Armenia and Azerbaijan result in 100 or more fatalities?

Started Feb 10, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 11, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan flared up most recently in September 2022, and tensions remain high despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers (France 24, US News & World Report, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in a fatality (total, not each) for forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, the forces of Artsakh, the breakaway Armenian-majority republic in Nagorno-Karabakh, are considered Armenian forces.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 11 August 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4.77%
No 95.23%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 76
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 277
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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