dada asks:

Between 10 February 2023 and 10 August 2023, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Armenia and Azerbaijan result in 100 or more fatalities?

Started Feb 10, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 11, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan flared up most recently in September 2022, and tensions remain high despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers (France 24, US News & World Report, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in a fatality (total, not each) for forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, the forces of Artsakh, the breakaway Armenian-majority republic in Nagorno-Karabakh, are considered Armenian forces.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 11 August 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4.77%
No 95.23%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 76
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 277
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.059265
2.
-0.059138
3.
-0.058521
4.
-0.058165
5.
-0.057548

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username