The Economist asks:

Will real GDP in the UK contract in the first and/or second quarter (Q1 and Q2) of 2023?

Started Feb 10, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The UK entered 2023 in a challenging economic environment (Economist, CNBC, HM Treasury). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using "Quarter on Quarter" data for the first and second quarters of 2023 as provided by the UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) once its "GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2023" release is published, scheduled for 29 September 2023 (Gross Domestic Product: Quarter on Quarter growth: CVM SA %, select "Table" under "Show data as" for data, GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2023).

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The question closed "Real GDP will not contract in either Q1 or Q2" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Real GDP will contract in Q1 but not in Q2 2%
Real GDP will contract in Q2 but not in Q1 23%
Real GDP will contract in both Q1 and Q2 7%
Real GDP will not contract in either Q1 or Q2 68%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 82
Average for questions older than 6 months: 201
Number of Forecasts 252
Average for questions older than 6 months: 573
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.79595
2.
-0.748615
3.
-0.722514
4.
-0.717965
5.
-0.607859

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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