Will legislation raising the French minimum retirement age from 62 become law before 1 July 2023?

Started Feb 17, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Large protests have broken out across France as President Emmanuel Macron pushes for parliament to raise the minimum retirement age from 62 (AP, Le Monde, Centre for European and International Social Security Liaisons). For the purposes of this question, legislation would be considered to become law upon its promulgation (i.e., signing) by the President of the Republic (e-Justice). Legislation with exceptions to a raised minimum retirement age (e.g., occupational exceptions or credit) would count, and the date the raise would take effect would be immaterial. Implementation by ordinance would not count (French Constitution, see Articles 38, 47, and 49).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 21 February 2023: The invocation of Article 49.3 to "pass" legislation would not count. For the purposes of this question, consider it under the ordinance exclusion.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 27.96%
No 72.04%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 63
Average for questions older than 6 months: 220
Number of Forecasts 179
Average for questions older than 6 months: 615
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username