MrLittleTexas asks:

Between 24 February 2023 and 25 August 2023, will former President Donald Trump be criminally charged with or indicted for a federal and/or state crime in the US?

Started Feb 24, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 09, 2023 06:00PM UTC

Former President Trump is currently under investigation by various US jurisdictions (Vox, AP, USA Today). Any criminal charge or indictment under seal would only count upon the unsealing of the charge or indictment during the question's open period (Cornell, see Definition (1), Legal Beagle). Contempt charges or citations imposed by a judge or judicial officer alone would not count (Cornell).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes, both a federal crime and a state crime" with a closing date of 9 June 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, a federal crime only 1%
Yes, a state crime only 8%
Yes, both a federal crime and a state crime 90%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 99
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 461
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.045
2.
-0.965
3.
-0.885
4.
-0.88
5.
-0.778

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username