Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will Moldova have a change in its constitutional order by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 October 2023?
Closing Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, the government of Moldova fears that Russia may attempt a coup in the country (US News & World Report, Politico, US News & World Report). For the purposes of this question, "extraconstitutional events" would be a change in the government by means not authorized by the Moldovan constitution (e.g., a coup) (Constitution of the Republic of Moldova). For example, the assassination of a leader alone would not count, but the installation of a successor not in accordance with the constitution would count. The fleeing of the constitutional government into exile would count.
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