Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Moldova have a change in its constitutional order by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 October 2023?

Started Mar 08, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, the government of Moldova fears that Russia may attempt a coup in the country (US News & World Report, Politico, US News & World Report). For the purposes of this question, "extraconstitutional events" would be a change in the government by means not authorized by the Moldovan constitution (e.g., a coup) (Constitution of the Republic of Moldova). For example, the assassination of a leader alone would not count, but the installation of a successor not in accordance with the constitution would count. The fleeing of the constitutional government into exile would count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.82%
No 99.18%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 69
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 225
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.001
3.
-0.001
4.
-0.001
5.
-0.001

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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