Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will Moldova have a change in its constitutional order by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 October 2023?
Closed Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, the government of Moldova fears that Russia may attempt a coup in the country (US News & World Report, Politico, US News & World Report). For the purposes of this question, "extraconstitutional events" would be a change in the government by means not authorized by the Moldovan constitution (e.g., a coup) (Constitution of the Republic of Moldova). For example, the assassination of a leader alone would not count, but the installation of a successor not in accordance with the constitution would count. The fleeing of the constitutional government into exile would count.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.82% | |
| No | 99.18% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 69 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 225 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 585 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
