Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Moldova have a change in its constitutional order by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 October 2023?

Started Mar 08, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, the government of Moldova fears that Russia may attempt a coup in the country (US News & World Report, Politico, US News & World Report). For the purposes of this question, "extraconstitutional events" would be a change in the government by means not authorized by the Moldovan constitution (e.g., a coup) (Constitution of the Republic of Moldova). For example, the assassination of a leader alone would not count, but the installation of a successor not in accordance with the constitution would count. The fleeing of the constitutional government into exile would count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 3.11% +0.00% -0.26% -1.77%
No 96.89% -0.00% +0.26% +1.77%

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