Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will eight or more Slovak MiG-29 fighter jets be transferred to Ukraine before 1 September 2023?

Started Mar 08, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 17, 2023 06:48AM UTC

As Ukraine pleads for hesitant Western nations to give it fighter jets, Slovakia has offered to provide Ukraine with ten of its MiG-29 fighter jets (Deutsche Welle, AP, Euromaidan Press). Jets would be considered transferred to Ukraine upon being physically relocated to Ukrainian territory. Overflights of Ukraine by the aircraft under Slovak or NATO command would not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 20 March 2023: The state of readiness of transferred Slovak MiG-29 fighter jets would be immaterial.

The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 16 April 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 96.00%
No 4.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 64
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 184
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username