What will be the ending stocks of crude oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in November 2023?

Started Mar 10, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

With US oil stockpiles in the SPR down 42% since President Biden took office, Republicans and Democrats are fighting over what to do next (Politico, The Hill, Department of Energy). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) when first released for November 2023, expected in January 2024 (EIA). For November 2022, ending stocks totaled 388,419 thousand barrels.

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The question closed "Between 330,000 thousand barrels and 370,000 thousand barrels, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 December 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 330,000 thousand barrels 1%
Between 330,000 thousand barrels and 370,000 thousand barrels, inclusive 98%
More than 370,000 thousand barrels but less than 410,000 thousand barrels 1%
Between 410,000 thousand barrels and 450,000 thousand barrels, inclusive 0%
More than 450,000 thousand barrels 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 26
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 219
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.105965
2.
-0.082674
3.
-0.071299
4.
-0.052413
5.
-0.038113

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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