Nonrival asks:

How many of the 50 largest commercial banks in the US will fail in 2023?

Started Mar 10, 2023 11:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

The failure of the Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023 has sent shock waves through financial markets (FDIC, CNBC, BBC). For the purposes of this question, the 50 largest commercial banks in the US are the top 50 as listed by the Federal Reserve as of 31 December 2022 (Federal Reserve - Large Commercial Banks). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data available from the Federal Reserve and open-source reporting. For the purposes of this question, a bank will be deemed to have failed if it files for bankruptcy, is taken over by the FDIC, or similar outcomes. The acquisition of a distressed bank by other institutions alone would not count (e.g., Federal Reserve - Wachovia).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
1 2.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
2 1.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
3 89.00% +0.00% +1.00% +6.00%
4 or more 8.00% +0.00% -1.00% -6.00%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username