Nonrival asks:

How many of the 50 largest commercial banks in the US will fail in 2023?

Started Mar 10, 2023 11:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

The failure of the Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023 has sent shock waves through financial markets (FDIC, CNBC, BBC). For the purposes of this question, the 50 largest commercial banks in the US are the top 50 as listed by the Federal Reserve as of 31 December 2022 (Federal Reserve - Large Commercial Banks). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data available from the Federal Reserve and open-source reporting. For the purposes of this question, a bank will be deemed to have failed if it files for bankruptcy, is taken over by the FDIC, or similar outcomes. The acquisition of a distressed bank by other institutions alone would not count (e.g., Federal Reserve - Wachovia).

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The question closed "3" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
1 0%
2 0%
3 96%
4 or more 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 138
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 985
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.168561
2.
-0.139134
3.
-0.136177
4.
-0.11743
5.
-0.116667

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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