Ev-Ze asks:

Will Vladimir Putin attend the 2023 BRICS Summit in South Africa?

Started Mar 24, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 22, 2023 07:01AM UTC

South Africa is scheduled to host the 15th BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) Summit in August 2023 (South African Government, Voice of America). Russian President Vladimir Putin's expected attendance has been complicated by the issuance of a warrant for his arrest by the International Criminal Court, which obliges South Africa to arrest Putin should he enter the country (Vice, US News & World Report, Parliamentarians for Global Action). Putin would have to be physically present at the summit to count. The question would close early upon the completion of the summit in South Africa. The question would close "No" upon either the official canceling of the summit for the 2023 calendar year or official relocation of the summit outside of South Africa.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 24 August 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.79%
No 99.21%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 170
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 820
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username