What will be the 3-month moving average of median wage growth for "Paid hourly" workers in April 2023?

Started Mar 29, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 05, 2023 11:59PM UTC

The Federal Reserve is targeting wage inflation as part of its overall attempt to bring price stability (CNBC, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Atlanta Fed's "Wage Growth Tracker" (Atlanta Fed, with "Interactive Chart" selected, click "Unweighted series, hourly" under "3-month moving average," then click "Paid hourly" in the chart legend). In April 2022, the 3-month moving average for "Paid hourly" was 6.5%.

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The question closed "6.0% or more" with a closing date of 6 May 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 5.0% 0%
Between 5.0% and 5.4%, inclusive 2%
More than 5.4% but less than 6.0% 17%
6.0% or more 81%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 55
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 120
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.430014
2.
-0.347598
3.
-0.289002
4.
-0.266031
5.
-0.249123

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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