Will the European Central Bank (ECB) announce a change to the "Fixed rate" for its "Main refinance operations" interest rate at its next scheduled monetary policy meeting?

Started Mar 29, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 03, 2023 11:59PM UTC

At its March 2023 meeting, the ECB raised interest rates for the eurozone in its fight against inflation, despite banking sector turmoil (US News & World Report, CNN, ECB - Key ECB interest rates). The Governing Council of the ECB is scheduled to have its next monetary policy meeting on 4 May 2023 (ECB - Meeting Schedule). The date the change would take effect is immaterial.

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The question closed "Yes, an increase greater than 0.00% but less than or equal to 0.25%" with a closing date of 4 May 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, a decrease 3%
No 9%
Yes, an increase greater than 0.00% but less than or equal to 0.25% 55%
Yes, an increase greater than 0.25% but less than or equal to 0.50% 32%
Yes, an increase greater than 0.50% 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 53
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 119
Average for questions older than 6 months: 595
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.115
2.
-0.115
4.
-0.089
5.
-0.088

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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