Will the European Central Bank (ECB) announce a change to the "Fixed rate" for its "Main refinance operations" interest rate at its next scheduled monetary policy meeting?
Closed May 03, 2023 11:59PM UTC
At its March 2023 meeting, the ECB raised interest rates for the eurozone in its fight against inflation, despite banking sector turmoil (US News & World Report, CNN, ECB - Key ECB interest rates). The Governing Council of the ECB is scheduled to have its next monetary policy meeting on 4 May 2023 (ECB - Meeting Schedule). The date the change would take effect is immaterial.
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The question closed "Yes, an increase greater than 0.00% but less than or equal to 0.25%" with a closing date of 4 May 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, a decrease | 3% | |
| No | 9% | |
| Yes, an increase greater than 0.00% but less than or equal to 0.25% | 55% | |
| Yes, an increase greater than 0.25% but less than or equal to 0.50% | 32% | |
| Yes, an increase greater than 0.50% | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 53 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 162 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 119 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 361 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
