Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 December 2023?

Started Mar 31, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (CNBC, Politico). For the purposes of this question, "territorial waters" means the sea within 12 nautical miles of the shore of the main island of Taiwan. Military drones would count, but balloons would not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 December 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.49%
No 94.51%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 96
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 372
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.118
2.
-0.118
3.
-0.118
4.
-0.118

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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