UBS asks:

How many of the largest commercial banks in the US will fail between 7 April 2023 and 29 September 2023?

Started Apr 07, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 29, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The failures of both Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank have observers speculating whether there will be more to come in 2023 (Deseret, The Street). The question will be suspended on 28 September 2023 and the outcome determined using data available from the Federal Reserve and open-source reporting. For the purposes of this question, "the largest commercial banks in the US" are those listed in the Federal Reserve's list of "Large Commercial Banks" as of 31 December 2022 (Federal Reserve - Large Commercial Banks, see "December 31, 2022"). As of 6 April 2023, two of the largest banks have failed in the US in 2023 thus far, SVB and Signature Bank (FDIC). A bank will be deemed to have failed if it files for bankruptcy, is taken over by the FDIC, or similar outcome. The acquisition of a distressed bank by other institutions alone would not count (e.g., Federal Reserve - Wachovia).

This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "1" with a closing date of 30 September 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 5%
1 91%
2 or 3 4%
4 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 106
Average for questions older than 6 months: 201
Number of Forecasts 446
Average for questions older than 6 months: 573
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username