Man Group asks:

What will be the percentage change in the value of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in 2023 as compared to 2022?

Started Apr 12, 2023 09:40PM UTC
Closed Dec 29, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by MSCI (MSCI - Emerging Markets, MSCI - Emerging Markets Index Chart, hover cursor over chart for data). The percentage change in the latest value dated in 2023 as compared to the latest value dated in 2022. The change in 2022 from 2021 was -20.09% (486.057/608.266-1 = -20.09%).

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The question closed "Between down less than 10.0% and up less than 10.0%" with a closing date of 29 December 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Down by more than 20.0% 0%
Down by between 10.0% and 20.0%, inclusive 0%
Between down less than 10.0% and up less than 10.0% 95%
Up by between 10.0% and 20.0%, inclusive 5%
Up by more than 20.0% 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 62
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 264
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.081577
2.
-0.081209
4.
-0.06876
5.
-0.053886

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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