Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many total refugees and migrants will arrive in Europe from around the Mediterranean Sea in 2023?

Started Apr 13, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) for "Total arrivals" on its Mediterranean Situation page (UNHCR - Mediterranean Situation). In 2022, a total of 159,410 arrived in Europe (sea arrivals to Italy, Cyprus, and Malta, and both sea and land arrivals to Greece and Spain (including the Canary Islands)).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Fewer than 100,000 0.00% +0.00% +0.00% -2.00%
Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive 6.00% +0.00% -1.00% -22.00%
More than 200,000 but fewer than 350,000 88.00% +1.00% +3.00% +23.00%
Between 350,000 and 550,000, inclusive 5.00% -1.00% -2.00% +0.00%
More than 550,000 but fewer than 800,000 1.00% +0.00% +0.00% +1.00%
800,000 or more 0.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%

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