Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
How many total refugees and migrants will arrive in Europe from around the Mediterranean Sea in 2023?
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) for "Total arrivals" on its Mediterranean Situation page (UNHCR - Mediterranean Situation). In 2022, a total of 159,410 arrived in Europe (sea arrivals to Italy, Cyprus, and Malta, and both sea and land arrivals to Greece and Spain (including the Canary Islands)).
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The question closed "More than 200,000 but fewer than 350,000" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 100,000 | 3% | |
| Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive | 6% | |
| More than 200,000 but fewer than 350,000 | 89% | |
| Between 350,000 and 550,000, inclusive | 2% | |
| More than 550,000 but fewer than 800,000 | 0% | |
| 800,000 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 51 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 262 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 585 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
