Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in continental Europe either directed or executed by one or more Saheli jihadist groups resulting in at least five fatalities before 1 January 2024?

Started Apr 14, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by EU law (European Council, see "EU definition of terrorism"). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to count. Whether a CCTA is either directed or executed by one or more Saheli jihadist groups will be determined using credible, open-source reporting (UN - List of Sahel Countries, CSIS). "Continental Europe" includes the territory on the continent of any country that is part of the European single market (Gov.uk - Countries in the EU and EEA, does not include the UK).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.97%
No 99.03%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 76
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 306
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.005681
2.
-0.005681
3.
-0.005681
4.
-0.00549
5.
-0.005481

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username