Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will Ukraine retake control of either the Zaporizhzhia or Kherson Oblast before 1 November 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?
Closed Nov 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
While Russia claimed to annex both the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts along with Donetsk and Luhansk, Ukraine still controls parts of each (AP). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 November 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5.24% | |
| No | 94.76% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 143 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 530 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
