Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Ukraine retake control of either the Zaporizhzhia or Kherson Oblast before 1 November 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Started Apr 21, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

While Russia claimed to annex both the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts along with Donetsk and Luhansk, Ukraine still controls parts of each (AP). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 November 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.24%
No 94.76%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 143
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 530
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.057424
2.
-0.057424
5.
-0.057171

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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