What will be the annual percentage change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in April 2023?
Closed May 25, 2023 11:59PM UTC
While inflation has cooled, the Federal Reserve has indicated that more progress is needed before it can stop tightening monetary policy (i.e., raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet) (Federal Reserve, NASDAQ). The question will be suspended on 25 May 2023 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Economic Analysis data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED, click "Edit Graph" and change "Units" to "Percent Change from Year Ago"). As of the launch of this question, the annual percentage change in the PCE Price Index was 5.00175 in February 2023.
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The question closed "More than 4.2%" with a closing date of 26 May 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 3.0% | 0% | |
| Between 3.0% and 3.4%, inclusive | 12% | |
| Higher by more than 3.4% but less than 3.8% | 20% | |
| Between 3.8% and 4.2%, inclusive | 50% | |
| More than 4.2% | 18% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 32 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 191 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 63 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 488 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
