What will be the annual percentage change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in April 2023?

Started Apr 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 25, 2023 11:59PM UTC

While inflation has cooled, the Federal Reserve has indicated that more progress is needed before it can stop tightening monetary policy (i.e., raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet) (Federal Reserve, NASDAQ). The question will be suspended on 25 May 2023 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Economic Analysis data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED, click "Edit Graph" and change "Units" to "Percent Change from Year Ago"). As of the launch of this question, the annual percentage change in the PCE Price Index was 5.00175 in February 2023.

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The question closed "More than 4.2%" with a closing date of 26 May 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 3.0% 0%
Between 3.0% and 3.4%, inclusive 12%
Higher by more than 3.4% but less than 3.8% 20%
Between 3.8% and 4.2%, inclusive 50%
More than 4.2% 18%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 32
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 63
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.386421
3.
-0.372364
4.
-0.35116
5.
-0.233101

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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