Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 11 November 2023, will Fitch, Moody's, and/or S&P announce that Tunisia has defaulted on its international debt?

Started May 11, 2023 09:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 11, 2023 08:01AM UTC

International debt payments are coming due for Tunisia amid protracted negotiations with the IMF and general political and economic distress (Africa News, Al Arabiya, Al Jazeera). Fitch, Moody's, and S&P are the "Big Three" global credit rating agencies, which assign ratings on a borrower's likelihood of repaying its debts (Investopedia - Credit Ratings Scale). Restricted and selective defaults would count, as would a technical default (Fitch, see "RD," Credit Risk Monitor - S&P, see "SD," Cbonds - Technical Default). For the purposes of this question, "international debt" means debt denominated in a currency other than Tunisian dinars (e.g., Cbonds - Tunisia Yen Bonds, Cbonds - Tunisia Euro Bonds).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 14.00% +0.00% -0.10% -3.70%
No 86.00% -0.00% +0.10% +3.70%

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