Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 11 November 2023, will Fitch, Moody's, and/or S&P announce that Tunisia has defaulted on its international debt?

Started May 11, 2023 09:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 11, 2023 08:01AM UTC

International debt payments are coming due for Tunisia amid protracted negotiations with the IMF and general political and economic distress (Africa News, Al Arabiya, Al Jazeera). Fitch, Moody's, and S&P are the "Big Three" global credit rating agencies, which assign ratings on a borrower's likelihood of repaying its debts (Investopedia - Credit Ratings Scale). Restricted and selective defaults would count, as would a technical default (Fitch, see "RD," Credit Risk Monitor - S&P, see "SD," Cbonds - Technical Default). For the purposes of this question, "international debt" means debt denominated in a currency other than Tunisian dinars (e.g., Cbonds - Tunisia Yen Bonds, Cbonds - Tunisia Euro Bonds).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 11 November 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3.15%
No 96.85%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 31
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 118
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.087658
2.
-0.087658
3.
-0.070949
4.
-0.064218
5.
-0.041087

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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