Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Between 12 May 2023 and 12 November 2023, will violence related to anti-government protests and/or civil unrest result in 250 or more fatalities in Tunisia?
Closed Nov 13, 2023 08:01AM UTC
The potential for turmoil in Tunisia has raised fears of a broader crisis in the region (US News & World Report, Soufan Center). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. If there is clear and credible evidence that the death of a detained protester is due to an injury incurred during a protest, only then would the death of such a prisoner count. For the purposes of this question, "civil unrest" would mean acts of violence including riots, arson, and armed insurrection.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 13 November 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7.33% | |
| No | 92.67% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 36 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 100 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
