Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 12 May 2023 and 12 November 2023, will violence related to anti-government protests and/or civil unrest result in 250 or more fatalities in Tunisia?

Started May 11, 2023 09:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 13, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The potential for turmoil in Tunisia has raised fears of a broader crisis in the region (US News & World Report, Soufan Center). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. If there is clear and credible evidence that the death of a detained protester is due to an injury incurred during a protest, only then would the death of such a prisoner count. For the purposes of this question, "civil unrest" would mean acts of violence including riots, arson, and armed insurrection.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 13 November 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 7.33%
No 92.67%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 36
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 100
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.005499
3.
-0.005451
4.
-0.004053
5.
-0.002546

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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