When will North Korea next conduct a nuclear test?

Started Sep 20, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 02, 2017 06:59AM UTC

Attention forecasters: We apologize for the delayed posting of scores. Our technical team is investigating the cause of the delay. Thank you for your patience! This question closed as "c) Between 1 July 2017 and December 31st 2017, inclusive", with and end date of 2 September 2017 (38 North). Past examples of North Korean nuclear tests include those listed here: BBC, NY Times 1/6/16, NY Times 9/8/16. North Korea conducted its fifth nuclear test in September of 2016 and there is speculation that a sixth test may soon follow (Reuters, CNBC). Recommended Questions Will six party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017? Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2017? Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China's and another country's national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 January 2017 0%
Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive 0%
Between 1 July 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive 50%
Not before 1 January 2018 50%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 432
Average for questions older than 6 months: 220
Number of Forecasts 2433
Average for questions older than 6 months: 615
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

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Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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