When will North Korea next conduct a nuclear test?
Started
Sep 20, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 02, 2017 06:59AM UTC
Closed Sep 02, 2017 06:59AM UTC
Attention forecasters: We apologize for the delayed posting of scores. Our technical team is investigating the cause of the delay. Thank you for your patience!
This question closed as "c) Between 1 July 2017 and December 31st 2017, inclusive", with and end date of 2 September 2017 (38 North).
Past examples of North Korean nuclear tests include those listed here: BBC, NY Times 1/6/16, NY Times 9/8/16. North Korea conducted its fifth nuclear test in September of 2016 and there is speculation that a sixth test may soon follow (Reuters, CNBC).
Recommended Questions
Will six party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017?
Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2017?
Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China's and another country's national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Before 1 January 2017 | 0% | |
Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive | 0% | |
Between 1 July 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive | 50% | |
Not before 1 January 2018 | 50% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 432 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 220 | |
Number of Forecasts | 2433 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 615 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |