Terry-Smith asks:

Will the US National Mediation Board (NMB) report that a "cooling off" period has begun for an airline pilot union and a major airline engaged in contract negotiations before 1 January 2024?

Started May 26, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

While American Airlines reached a tentative deal with its pilot union in May 2023, negotiations were still ongoing for United and Southwest (CNBC). Under the procedures laid out in the Railway Labor Act, which also governs airlines, the parties to a labor negotiation enter a "cooling-off" period once the National Mediation Board determines that mediation has failed to produce an agreement and either or both parties reject binding arbitration (Freight Waves, NMB - Collective Bargaining Flow Chart, NMB - Press Release re Railroad Workers Negotiations). For the purposes of this question, a "major airline" is Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, United Airlines, or Southwest Airlines.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3.40%
No 96.60%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 16
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 97
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.515022
2.
-0.404367
3.
-0.225668
4.
-0.224126
5.
-0.214194

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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