cosaib asks:

Before 1 November 2023, will NATO and/or a NATO member state accuse Republic of Serbia national military forces and/or law enforcement of entering Kosovo without authorization?

Started Jun 02, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Violence in Kosovo escalated in late May 2023 as Serb protesters clashed with NATO's KFOR peacekeeping forces while Serbia has put its forces on high alert amid domestic political protests of its own (AP, BBC, NATO - KFOR, EURACTIV). Serbia requested to deploy forces in December 2022, but KFOR declined (Politico).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 November 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4.00%
No 96.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 86
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 262
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.015
3.
-0.015
4.
-0.014
5.
-0.014

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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