Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 July 2024, will the Scottish Parliament vote in the affirmative for early elections?

Started Jun 02, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The push in Scotland for independence from the United Kingdom continues, with early Scottish Parliament elections suggested as a means toward that end by the independence-minded Scottish National Party (Yahoo UK, The National). Under the Scotland Act of 1998, the Scottish Parliament may dissolve itself and seek early elections if supported by a two-thirds majority, though some members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) have discussed attempting to do so with a simple majority bill ( - Scotland Act, Section 3, The Scotsman, The National). In the story from "The National" in the preceding sentence, the "one-line bill to get around the Fixed-term Parliaments Act" refers to the Early Parliamentary General Election Act of 2019 ( - Early Parliamentary General Election Act 2019, House of Commons Library). The question would close upon the announcement of results of a qualifying vote that would lead to early elections, irrespective of any judicial intervention, acts of the Parliament of the United Kingdom, and or Royal Assent. The Scottish Parliament will be deemed to have voted in the affirmative for early elections upon reaching the minimum threshold for passage under the purported legal authority invoked by the parliament (e.g., two-thirds under the terms of the Scotland Act, simple majority by means of legislation only requiring a simple majority).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 11.36% -0.41% -0.41% -0.49%
No 88.64% +0.41% +0.41% +0.49%

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