Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
When will all military forces of the Russian Federation cease to be in the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts in Ukraine?
Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Ukraine hopes to expel Russian forces from the whole of the country, though observers note that this will be difficult (Defense One). For the purposes of this question, "military forces of the Russian Federation" includes forces under the command of the Russian Ministry of Defence and military contractor groups (e.g., Wagner Group and Redut). The continued presence of "People's militias" associated with the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics would be immaterial, as would the location of any prisoner of war. Ambiguous reporting regarding the presence of military forces of the Russian Federation will be ultimately decided using data and reporting provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
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The question closed "Not before 1 July 2024" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Before 1 July 2023 | 0% | |
Between 1 July 2023 and 31 December 2023 | 0% | |
Between 1 January 2024 and 30 June 2024 | 0% | |
Not before 1 July 2024 | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 148 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188 | |
Number of Forecasts | 691 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 544 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |